Analysis of Factors Influencing the Severity of Urban Road Traffic Accidents during Peak Period
The factors influencing the severity of urban road traffic accidents during peak hours was inves-tigated by using the historical traffic accident data from a city in China from 2016 to 2020.Firstly,the distribution and characteristics of the accident data were quantitatively described.14 factors such as driver's age were selected as candidate independent variables,with accident severity as the dependent variable.Significant influencing factors were screened out by stepwise forward method and likelihood ratio test.It was found that vehicle type,vehicle safety condition,road alignment,roadside protective facili-ties,and weather were significantly correlated with accident severity during traffic peak period.Subse-quently,a binary logistic regression model was established,and the Omnibus test and the Hosmer-Leme-show test of the coefficients of the model were performed.The results exhibited a good fit for the model;severe accidents were more likely to involve motorcycles,light trucks,medium and large-sized buses,and heavy trucks;the probability of severe accidents on non-straight roads was higher compared to straight roads;roads without protection were less likely to present severe accidents;and accidents that oc-curred during cloudy and rainy weather were more severe than in sunny weather.Based on the model a-nalysis results,relevant recommendations for road traffic management were proposed,which provided a basis and reference for alleviating the severity of traffic peak period accidents.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
