Analysis of Factors Affecting the Severity of Low-Grade Roads Traffic Accidents
Low-grade roads are widely distributed in rural areas,and it is great significance to investigate their traffic safety issues for rural traffic safety.To improve the traffic safety conditions of low-grade roads,the data of low-graded road accidents in a city from 2016 to 2021 were collected,and the influen-cing factors of accident severity were analyzed by random forest and multinomial logit models.Firstly,the random forest model was used to rank the relative importance of each independent variable,and the top 8 variables were selected as the key factors affecting the severity of accidents.Secondly,the multinomial logit model was applied to identify the factors that significantly affect accident severity among the key ones and explain their impact trends.The results indicate that the combined model can analyze and explain the relationship between influencing factors and accidents severity.The decreasing visibility would signifi-cantly increase the probability of severe accidents.Factors such as three-way and four-way intersections,pedestrians,non-motorized vehicles,the elderly all have a significant impact on the occurrence of severe accidents.The results can provide theoretical basis for traffic management authorities to formulate corre-sponding accident prevention policies and road traffic safety protection measures and improve the safety levels of lower-grade roads.
low-grade roadsrural traffic safetyaccident severityrandom forestmultinomial logit model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
