Effect Evaluation of Macro Policy in the Process of Economic Recovery and Development:Macro-Policy Trinity Indices and Macro Policy Evaluation Report 2024
Based on the theory of Macro-Policy Trinity and the Macro-Policy Trinity indices,this report provides a systematic evaluation of China's macro policies in 2023.From the perspective of policy effectiveness,the output gap and potential growth gap have both been narrowed,and the overall financial risk is controllable.Therefore,macro policies have achieved the dual objectives of economic stability and financial stability.However,it is worth noting that the output gap and potential growth gap are still negative,and some fields are still at potential risks.From the perspective of policy operations,macro policies have pursued progress while ensuring stability and responded to external and internal pressures effectively.However,the strength and efficiency of stabilization policy need to be further improved,and the orientation consistency among stabilization policy,growth policy,and structural policy needs to be strengthened.Overall,the basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-run positive outlook has not changed,but it also faces some difficulties and challenges.This report suggests adopting the combination of Macro-Policy Trinity and reform,strengthening the use of growth policy and structural policy,and further increasing the strength of stabilization policy with the coordination of growth policy and structural policy.This can improve the overall effects of macro policies and help Chinese economy achieve the growth target of over 5%.