首页|稳中求进以进促稳先立后破——当前中国经济形势分析与2024年展望

稳中求进以进促稳先立后破——当前中国经济形势分析与2024年展望

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"坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破"是2023年中央经济工作会议上提出的宏观治理新思路,为中国经济政策调整指明了新方向.中国经济增速近些年持续低于潜在增速,在疫情前就已经形成经济增速持续下滑的态势.逆转这一态势,实现高质量发展刻不容缓.中国经济发展潜力仍然巨大,为了充分释放这些潜力,宏观经济政策应当积极对冲规范治理政策带来的收缩效应,2024年需重点着力于房地产、地方债、民营经济、科技创新、消费信心、城镇化、国际环境七大方面.2024年要关注房地产风险扩大、民营企业信心不足、西方大国选举引致的不确定性上升三方面的风险.若这三大风险能妥善应对,2024年中国经济有望实现5%左右的增长.
Seeking Progress while Maintaining Stability,Promoting Stability through Progress,and Establishing the New before Abolishing the Old:Analysis of China's Current Economic Situation and Outlook to 2024
"Adhering to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability,promoting stability through progress,and establishing the new before abolishing the old"is a new macro governance approach proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023,which points out a new direction for China's economic policy adjustment.In recent years,China's economy growth has been consistently below its potential growth rate,and a trend of continuous decline in economic growth had already formed before the epidemic.It is urgent to reverse this downward trend and achieve high-quality development.The potential for economic development in China is still enormous.In order to fully unleash these potentials,macroeconomic policies should actively hedge against the contraction effects brought about by regulatory governance policies.In 2024,it is necessary to focus on seven aspects:real estate,local bonds,private economy,technological innovation,consumer confidence,urbanization,and international environment.In 2024,attention should be paid to the risks of expanding real estate risks,lack of confidence in private enterprises,and rising uncertainty over elections in western powers.If these three risks can be properly respond,China's economy is expected to achieve about 5%growth in 2024.

macroeconomic policieseconomic developmenteconomic growth rate

清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院(ACCEPT)宏观预测课题组、李稻葵、厉克奥博、李冰、郭美新、陆琳、吴舒钰

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清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院

宏观经济政策 经济发展 经济增速

2024

改革
重庆社会科学院

改革

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.418
ISSN:1003-7543
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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