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我国重要农产品供需变化趋势与供给保障能力提升策略

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基于对我国重要农产品生产、消费和进口历史变化情况的分析,以及对2035年前变化趋势的预测,认为我国重要农产品供给保障面临国内增产边际效应递减和利用国际市场风险增大的双重挑战,应从统筹国内和国际两个大局、发展和安全两件大事出发,谋划好现代化新征程重要农产品供给保障思路.一方面,应从供需两侧入手扩产能、控消费,构建农业综合生产能力内在增长机制,针对农民务农种粮和地方重农抓粮逻辑采取差异化扶持政策,推进节粮减损、倡导节约消费;另一方面,应实施农产品进口多元化战略,提高海外供应链稳定性可靠性;此外,还应推动建立统一、联动的全国农产品大市场,完善农产品储备调节制度.
Trends in Supply and Demand Changes of Important Agricultural Products in China and Strategies for Enhancing Supply Guarantee Capacity
Based on the analysis of the historical changes in the production,consumption,and import of important agricultural products in China,as well as the prediction of the trend before 2035,it is believed that the supply guarantee of important agricultural products in China is facing the dual challenges of diminishing marginal effects of domestic production increase and increasing risks in utilizing the international market.Therefore,we should start from the overall planning of domestic and international situations,as well as the two major issues of development and security,plan a good strategy for ensuring the supply of important agricultural products in the new journey of modernization.On the one hand,we should start from both supply and demand sides to expand production capacity and control consumption,establish an internal growth mechanism for comprehensive agricultural production capacity,adopt differentiated support policies for farmers to engage in agriculture and grain production,and promote grain conservation and consumption conservation in local areas.On the other hand,a diversified strategy for importing agricultural products should be implemented to improve the stability and reliability of overseas supply chains.In addition,efforts should be made to establish a unified and interconnected national agricultural product market,and improve the regulation system for agricultural product reserves.

important agricultural productschanges in supply and demandsupply guaranteefood safety

叶兴庆、程郁、张诩、张玉梅、程广燕

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国务院发展研究中心农村经济研究部

中国农业大学经济管理学院

农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所

重要农产品 供需变化 供给保障 粮食安全

2024

改革
重庆社会科学院

改革

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.418
ISSN:1003-7543
年,卷(期):2024.(4)