Stimulating Local Economic Vitality and Promoting Sustained Macroeconomic Growth:Analysis of China's Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook for the Second Half of 2024
Currently,there is a phenomenon in China where the actual economic growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate,mainly manifested as low prices,insufficient consumer confidence and business prosperity,and an unclear decline in unemployment rate.In addition to the sluggish real estate market and weak consumer demand,a key factor contributing to these phenomena is the rapid reduction of local government spending under the pressure of debt restructuring.This not only leads to a significant decrease in actual demand for government departments after removing debt repayment and interest payments,but also squeezes the funds of some private enterprises.To achieve the 2035 development goals,it is necessary to further deepening reform comprehensively,enhance awareness of potential risks,and make every effort to avoid the risk of further decline in potential economic growth caused by the long-term operation of the economy below its potential growth rate.At the same time,it is necessary to re-understand the nature of treasury bond and the role of treasury bond in the process of Chinese path to modernization,issue more treasury bond to replace local debt on a large scale,so as to stimulate local economic vitality,and guide local governments to shift from focusing on investment and production to focusing on consumption and residents'income,so as to promote the realization of Chinese path to modernization with high-quality development.
local economic vitalitymacroeconomicspotential growth ratefiscal expenditurenational debt
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