Analysis of the Optimal Distribution Range for Industrial Sector Share in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period,China's industry will encounter a multitude of challenges,including an overall demand shortfall,relative surplus in supply,waning growth momentum in traditional industries,strategic decoupling and disconnection from western countries,and industrial substitution by later-developing nations.While the trend of declining industrial share due to structural shocks is inevitable,given the central role of industry in the national economy,its stable development is imperative.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis and forecasts the reasonable range for China's industrial and manufacturing sector shares during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period.The findings indicate that domestic industrial share should fall within 30％-33％,with the manufacturing sector ranging around 25％-28％.Globally,industrial share is anticipated to be between 24％-26％,while the manufacturing sector may reach 28％-30％.To achieve dual goals of maintaining stable domestic and international industrial shares,it is recommended to sustain an industrial growth rate at approximately 3.5％.To accomplish this objective,efforts should focus on enhancing efficiency in traditional industries;fostering innovation for new quality productive forces;revitalizing development vitality within the service sector;establishing an innovation-oriented industrial policy system;strengthening resilience across the industrial chain;and implementing regional balanced development strategy.
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