Objective Analyze the risk factors related to acute liver failure(ALF)in patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)and build their nomogram prediction model.397 patients with acute pancreatitis are taken as the research object.Methods According to whether they combine ALF,they are divided into ALF groups and non-ALF groups.The influencing factors of their combined ALF are analyzed through single and multi-factor logistic models,and the variables of statistical significance(P＜0.05)in regression analy-sis are taken as pre-Measure the factor.Use R language to build a line chart and risk prediction model of BMI normal AP combined with ALF.Results ALF occurred in 42 of 397 AP patients(10.58％).Logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP score,NLR value and glutamyl transferase were independent risk factors of AP combined with ALF.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for predicting AP combined with ALF was 0.959(95％CI:0.937～0.980),the sensitivity was 97.6％,and the specificity was 82.7％.Bootstrap method repeated sampling 1000 validation nomograms,showing that the nomogram prediction model before and after internal validation mean absolute error of 0.034.And the net clinical benefit of nomogram model was significantly higher than that predicted by any single index.Conclusion BISAP score,NLR value and Glutamyl transpeptidase value are independent risk factors for AP combined with ALF.The line chart model based on the above factors has a high accuracy in predicting the early risk of AP with ALF,which can facilitate clinicians to conduct early evaluation of patients and provide reference value for the formulation of treatment plans.
维普
万方数据