Using Haikou City as the research object,this paper analyzed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value from 2010 to 2020,and employed the PLUS model and the equivalent factor method to simulate the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecosystem service value under three scenarios of natural development (BAU),ecological conservation (EC),and economic development (ED) in 2035,and explored the impacts of different land use patterns on ecosystem service value. The results showed that land use types in Haikou City had the highest proportion of forested land and dry land,and the structure of ecosystem services was relatively stable. Hydrological regulation and water resource provisioning services declined the most under the influence of the increase of construction land,indicating that the change of LULC was closely related to the change of ecosystem service value. All ecosystem services improved under the EC scenario,and the structural adjustments of LULC,especially the increase of wetland proportion,significantly improved the overall ecosystem services in the region.
Land use patternEcosystem service valueMultiple scenarios simulationPLUS model
维普
万方数据
