Predicting the Diffusion Logic of the Cadre Fault-tolerant Mechanism:Efficiency,Legitimacy,and Leadership——Predictive Modeling Based on Machine Learning
The national government has been increasingly vocal about the cadre fault-tolerant mechanism(CFTM),however,the spread of this policy in China has gradually slowed down in re-cent years.To solve the above problems,the key is to study the diffusion logic of CFTM.In the re-search on the diffusion logic of policy innovation,most research methods generally follow the"with-in-sample explanation"approach.This makes it difficult to ensure the scientific validity,especially the generalizability,of the research conclusions.To overcome this limitation,this paper adopts the"out-of-sample prediction"approach to explore the diffusion logic of CFTM.Specifically,based on the policy innovation diffusion theory,this paper constructs an analytical framework,uses machine learn-ing methods to train a predictive model for local governments adopting CFTM,and presents the diffusion logic of CFTM while ensuring the predictive performance of the model.The model interpretation results re-veal that the diffusion of CFTM is mainly dominated by actor logic,followed by efficiency logic and legitima-cy logic.Among the three dimensions of efficiency logic,legitimacy logic,and actor logic,the most influen-tial features are governance scale,peer adoption,and the tenure of the top leader,respectively.The proba-bility of local governments adopting CFTM is negatively related to governance scale,positively related to peer adoption,and has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the tenure of the top leader.To promote the orderly development of CFTM,this paper suggests that local governments strengthen the leadership-driven effect in the diffusion of CFTM and scientifically plan the diffusion path of CFTM.
Cadre Fault-tolerant MechanismPolicy Innovation and DiffusionMachine LearningPredictive Modeling
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