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黄河流域水资源利用驱动因素及脱钩效应研究

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实现水资源可持续利用是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要内容。采用水足迹法测度2000-2020年黄河流域56个地级市的水资源实际消耗情况,通过对数均值迪氏指数法揭示用水变化的主要影响因素,并结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力指数模型测度水资源利用脱钩效应。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年黄河流域水资源利用呈现波动上升趋势,农业生产用水是其主要组成部分,所占比重均在90%以上。(2)经济发展效应与人口规模效应对水资源消耗起正向驱动作用,用水强度效应与产业结构效应起负向驱动作用。(3)水资源利用与经济发展脱钩效果整体较好,主要有弱脱钩和强脱钩2种状态。具体来看,中游和下游地区的脱钩状态优于上游地区;工业生产用水和服务业用水的脱钩状态优于农业生产用水。(4)水资源利用脱钩效应转变过程中,产业结构效应和水资源禀赋效应是实现区域脱钩的重要因素,而用水强度效应和水资源禀赋效应是实现行业脱钩的关键所在。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源与经济绿色协调发展提供理论参考。
Driving factors and decoupling effect of water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin
Realizing the sustainable utilization of water resources is a critical aspect of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,China.This study uses water footprint theory and methodol-ogy to measure the actual water consumption of 56 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020.It identi-fies the primary factors influencing water use changes with the logarithmic mean Divisia index method and con-structs a decoupling effort index model based on the driver-pressure-state-influence-response framework to evalu-ate the decoupling effect of water resource utilization.The findings reveal the following:(1)The utilization of wa-ter resources in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020,with agricultural production water accounting for over 90%of the total consumption.(2)The economic development effect and population scale effect are the primary positive driving factors,while the water use intensity effect and industrial structure effect serve as the main negative driving factors.(3)The decoupling effect between water resource utili-zation and economic development in the Yellow River Basin is generally favorable,primarily characterized by weak and strong decoupling.The decoupling performance is better in the midstream and downstream regions compared to the upstream region,and industrial production water and service trade water demonstrate superior de-coupling compared to agricultural production water.(4)In the transition process of the decoupling effect of water resource utilization,the industrial structure effect and water resource endowment effect are decisive for achieving regional decoupling,while the water use intensity effect and water resource endowment effect are critical for achieving industrial decoupling.The results offer a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of water re-sources and the economy in the Yellow River Basin.

water footprintthe DPSIR frameworklogarithmic mean Divisia indexdecoupling modelYel-low River Basin

杨燕燕、王永瑜、徐绮阳

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兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730020

水足迹 DPSIR框架 对数均值迪氏指数 脱钩模型 黄河流域

2025

干旱区地理
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究 中国地理学会

干旱区地理

北大核心
影响因子:1.863
ISSN:1000-6060
年,卷(期):2025.48(1)