Dynamic evolution and zoning control of cultivated land non-grain in grain production and marketing balance area:A case of Shaanxi Province
Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of cultivated land non-grain in grain production and marketing balance areas is crucial for providing references for differentiated control measures and long-term management strategies.This study employs spatial autocorrelation models,spatio-tempo-ral geographically weighted regression models,K-means algorithms,and other methods to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land non-grain and its driving factors in Shaanxi Province,China,from 2000 to 2020.The results reveal the following:(1)The non-grain rate of cultivated land in Shaanxi Province increased from 16.11%in 2000 to 27.87%in 2020,representing a 73.00%rise.(2)The spatial distribution of non-grain in the province followed a pattern of"high in the north-south and low in the center."The center of"high-high ag-glomeration"shifted gradually from the junction of the Guanzhong region and the northern region to the southern region of Shaanxi Province.Meanwhile,the"low-low agglomeration"was primarily concentrated in the Guan-zhong region,exhibiting a diffusion trend from the center to surrounding areas.(3)The influence and scope of driving factors for cultivated land non-grain display significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.The added value of the primary industry showed an increasing influence on cultivated land non-grain,while factors such as per capita cultivated land area,per capita mechanical labor force,average land slope,and annual precipitation demonstrated a decreasing influence.(4)The non-grain driving type of cultivated land in Shaanxi Province is mainly economic-driven,which is mainly distributed in Guanzhong region.Promoting the cost reduction and income increase of grain farmers and reducing the loss of rural population are the key points of control strategies.The types of pro-duction support are mainly distributed in the northern region,and the control strategies are mainly to improve the grain planting conditions and promote the development of the agricultural economy.The environmental restric-tion types are mainly distributed in the southern region of Shaanxi Province,and the combination measure of poli-cy guidance and control strategies is the governance mode.
cultivated land protectionnon-grain of cultivated landgrain production and marketing balance ar-easpatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model
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