Spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of population in Lanzhou City from 2000 to 2020
Utilizing data from population censuses conducted in 2000,2010,and 2020,this study employs the off-set-sharing analysis,the random forest model and other methods to examine the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of population distribution in Lanzhou City,Gansu Province,China,from 2000 to 2020.The find-ings reveal that:(1)Population growth exhibits significant differences across periods and regions in Lanzhou City,with clear suburbanization trends characterized by a"jumping"diffusion from the central urban area to the far suburbs.The central urban area remains the most populous,although its growth rate has slowed,while subur-ban growth is accelerating.Population in the far suburbs initially declined but later increased rapidly.(2)The pop-ulation offset growth pattern in Lanzhou City is uneven.Taking 2010 as a pivotal year,blocks with positive pop-ulation deviation growth were primarily located in the central urban area before 2010 but shifted to the far sub-urbs afterward,particularly in national new districts and development zones,which demonstrate"enclave"pop-ulation agglomeration.(3)Natural factors,economic conditions,social development levels,and historical evo-lution are the main drivers of population spatial changes.Meanwhile,the influence of policy interventions and environmental comfort is increasingly significant.The impact of these driving factors on population distribu-tion is nonlinear.These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing population distribution policies in in-land cities of northwest China.
population distributionspatial-temporal evolutionsuburbanizationdriving factorsrandom for-est modelLanzhou City
万方数据
