补贴退减下分布式光伏发电不同运营模式的经济效益研究——以京津冀地区为例
Economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation under different operating modes in situation of subsidy reduction:A case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
王风云 1全春莲 2丛龙园 3卢密林2
作者信息
- 1. 北京石油化工学院人文社科学院,北京 102617
- 2. 北京石油化工学院经济管理学院,北京 102617
- 3. 北京石油化工学院经济管理学院,北京 102617;中国银行股份有限公司贵州省分行,贵阳 550002
- 折叠
摘要
分布式光伏发电已成为能源低碳发展的重要战略选择之一,但在政策调整下分布式光伏发电项目收益不确定制约了其规模化发展.因此,探究分布式光伏发电不同运营模式的经济效益,对促进产业高质量发展具有重要意义.文中运用净现值、动态投资回收期、内部收益率3种方法,研究2017-2022年定额补贴退减背景下,京津冀居民和工商业用户分布式光伏发电项目不同运营模式的经济效益,并对其影响因素进行敏感性分析.结果表明:在定额补贴退减下分布式光伏发电项目的经济效益下降,但仍具有一定经济性,用户选择"自发自用,余量上网"模式的经济效益要优于"全额上网"模式,且自用比例越高经济效益越好;在"全额上网"模式中,影响用户经济效益关键因素依次为年发电量和光伏标杆上网电价;在"自发自用,余量上网"模式中,影响居民和工商业用户经济效益最大因素分别是年发电量和销售电价,且随着自用比例增加,销售电价对两类用户经济效益的影响增大.
Abstract
Distributed photovoltaic power generation has become one of the important strategic choices for low-carbon energy development,but under the policy adjustment,the uncertainty of distributed photovoltaic power generation project benefit restricts its large-scale development.Therefore,exploring the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation for different operating modes is of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of the industry.In this paper,three methods of net present value,dynamic investment payback period and internal rate of return are used to study the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects for residents and industrial and commercial users in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under the background of subsidy reduction from 2017 to 2022,and the sensitivity of the influencing factors are analyzed.The results show that the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects decline under the reduction of fixed subsidies,but still have a certain benefit.The economic benefits of the mode of"self-use,surplus online"are better than those of"full online",and the higher the proportion of self-use is,the better the economic benefits are.In the"full online"mode,the key factors affecting the economic benefits of users are the annual power generation and photovoltaic benchmark on-grid price.In the mode of"self-use,surplus online",the biggest factors affecting the economic benefits of residents and industrial and commercial users are respectively annual power generation and sales electricity price,and with the increase of the proportion of self-use,the impact of sales electricity price on the economic benefits of the two types of users increases.
关键词
分布式光伏发电/补贴退减/运营模式/经济效益/京津冀Key words
distributed photovoltaic power-generation/subsidy reduction/operation modes/economic benefits/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY057)
国家自然科学基金项目(71703009)
北京石油化工学院重要科研成果培育项目(BI-PTACF-012)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据