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我国资源安全评估指标体系与模型构建研究

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构建新时代国家资源安全评估指标体系模型,可为国家资源安全管理提供科学依据,对维护国家资源安全具有重要意义。文中在现有国家资源安全评估研究基础上,搭建了包括水资源、能源资源、土地资源、矿产资源、生物资源、海洋资源以及环境资源七个维度的国家资源安全评估指标体系;采用博弈论组合赋权法对序关系分析法和熵值取权法进行最优权重集成,综合考虑线性加权评估模型、模糊综合评估模型、TOPSIS评估模型和模拟退火优化投影寻踪评估模型的得分差异和排序中位次两种因素,运用模糊Borda法对2011-2020年我国资源安全进行组合评估。研究结果显示:我国资源安全各领域安全评估值呈逐年上升趋势,且在国家资源安全中,能源资源、矿产资源和环境资源的重要性位列前三;生物资源、水资源、海洋资源以及土地资源的重要性相对而言较低。近年来,随着我国经济进入高质量发展阶段,在党和国家的有关政策、制度的建立和落实下,国家资源安全水平持续提升,使得我国资源的供给不断朝着协调和可持续方向发展。同时模型敏感性分析表明该模型拥有较好鲁棒性,可为国家资源安全评估的分析管理提供理论参考与方法支撑,为资源可持续利用发展与资源安全的保障提供新途径,进一步推动新形势下我国资源安全稳定维护与战略实施。
An approach to construction of index system and model for assessment of national resources security
Constructing a national resources security evaluation index system and model for new era can provide a scientific foundation for national resources management,and is critical to ensuring national resources security.This study developed a national resources security evaluation index system based on existing researches on national resources security evaluation,including water,energy,land,mineral,biological,marine,and environmental resources.Then,we used the game theory portfolio weighting method to integrate the optimal weight set of the sequential relationship analysis method and the entropy weighting method.Then,the fuzzy Borda portfolio method was used to assess the national resource security from 2011 to 2020 considering the two factors:difference in scores and orders in the rankings obtained from the linear weighted evaluation model,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,TOPSIS evaluation model,and simulated annealing optimization projection tracking evaluation model.The research findings revealed that the value of security evaluation in several fields of China's national resource security had risen year by year.Among the national resource security,the importance of energy resources,mineral resources,and environmental resources ranks in the top three,while that of biologi-cal,water,marine and land resources are relatively lower.With China's economy entering the stage of high-quality development and the establishment and implementation of relevant policies and systems by the party and the government in recent years,the level of national resource security has been continuously improved,which makes the China's resource supply to move constantly towards coordination and sustainability.Meanwhile,the sensitivity analysis revealed that the model's robustness is good,so it can provide a theoretical reference and method support for analysis and management of national resource security evaluation,a new way for guaranteeing the sustainable resource utilization and development,and further promote the maintenance of national resources security and strategic implementation in China's new situation.

national resources securitysecurity assessmentgame theory portfolio weightingfuzzy Borda portfolio method

徐宗煌、张伟、蔡鸿宇、石进

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南京大学信息管理学院,南京 210023

国家资源安全 安全评估 博弈论组合赋权 模糊Borda组合评估

国家社会科学基金江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划

21BTQ012KYCX23_0082

2024

干旱区资源与环境
中国自然资源学会干旱半干旱地区研究委员会 内蒙古农业大学

干旱区资源与环境

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.492
ISSN:1003-7578
年,卷(期):2024.38(5)