首页|化肥面源污染排放的时空演进及驱动因素研究——基于中国13个粮食主产省2000~2020年数据

化肥面源污染排放的时空演进及驱动因素研究——基于中国13个粮食主产省2000~2020年数据

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为揭示粮食主产省化肥面源污染排放时空特征,保障粮食安全,验证化肥零增长行动计划是否有效,文章基于我国13个粮食主产省2000~2020年的数据,运用化肥流失系数法、标准差椭圆法、LMDI分解法分析了粮食主产省化肥面源污染排放的时空演变特征及其驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)粮食主产省在考察期内农业化肥面源污染总量和强度均呈现倒U型的变化趋势,且在2015年化肥面源污染排放总量达到峰值,为376。72万t,2020年粮食主产省实现化肥零增长的目标。2)化肥面源污染排放总量和排放强度较高水平的省份主要分布在苏鲁地区及周边省份,同时在空间上存在一定程度的聚集特征。3)粮食主产省的化肥面源污染排放总量重心由山东省济南市转移至山东省泰安市,热点区域呈向东北扩张趋势,而面源污染强度重心一直维持在山东省泰安市,面源污染总量和强度均呈西南-东北方向集聚。4)种植规模的扩大、产出效应均加剧了化肥面源污染程度。所以,应平衡经济效益和面源污染之间的关系,大力发展绿色种植技术,采取因地制宜、联防联控的防治策略。
Temporal and spatial evolution of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer in main grain producing areas of China
In order to reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of non-point source pollution emissions of chemical fertilizer in main grain producing areas,to ensure China's food security,and to verify the effectiveness of"action plan for zero-growth in chemical fertilizer application",based on the data of 13 main grain producing provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer in main grain production areas and driving factors were analyzed by using fertilizer loss coefficient method,standard deviation ellipse method and LMDI decomposition method.The results show that:1)During the investigation period,both the total amount and intensity of agricultural chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution in the main grain-producing provinces showed an inverted U-shaped trend,and the total amount of chemical fertilizer non-point source emissions reached a peak in 2015,at 3.7672 million tons.Major grain-producing provinces have achieved the goal of zero growth in chemical fertilizer application.2)Provinces with higher total non-point source emissions and emission intensity from chemical fertilizers are mainly distributed in the Jiangsu,Shandong provinces and surrounding provinces,and there is a certain degree of spatial aggregation characteristics.3)The concentration of total non-point source emissions of fertilizers has shifted from Jinan to Tai'an in major grain-producing provinces.The hotspots have been expanding to the northeast,while the intensity concentration of non-point source pollution has been maintained in Tai'an,the total amount and intensity of non-point source pollution were concentrated in the direction of southwest-northeast.4)The enlargement of planting scale and the output effect all aggravated the non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer.Therefore,we should balance the relationship between economic benefits and non-point source pollution,vigorously develop green planting technology,take the control strategies such as adaptation measures to local condition,jointly preventing and controlling the excessive fertilizer application.

major grain producing provincenon-point source pollutionspatio-temporal evolutiondriving factors

刘晓倩、李玲、孙小龙

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河北地质大学经济学院,石家庄 050031

河北省科技创新与区域经济可持续发展研究基地,石家庄 050031

河北地质大学自然资源资本资产研究中心,石家庄 050031

江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,南京 210014

江苏农业科技创新研究基地,南京 210014

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粮食主产省 面源污染 时空演进 驱动因素

国家社会科学基金青年项目国家自然科学基金青年科学基金河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目

21CJY04872103081SY202128

2024

干旱区资源与环境
中国自然资源学会干旱半干旱地区研究委员会 内蒙古农业大学

干旱区资源与环境

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.492
ISSN:1003-7578
年,卷(期):2024.38(5)