Simulation of land use and ecosystem service value in Shiyang River Basin based on Markov-PLUS model
As a typical inland river basin in China,the Shiyang River Basin serves as a crucial ecological barrier in the western region.In this paper,the Markov-PLUS model and ecosystem service value(ESV)calculation method were used to simulate the land use patterns and ESVs in the Shiyang River Basin in 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario,ecological conservation scenario and urban construction scenario.The results showed that:1)The land use transfer area in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was 4670.87 km2,it mainly occurred between grassland,unused land and artificial surfaces.2)The results of land use simulation under three scenarios are different.Under the business-as-usual scenario,the area of waters and wetland decrease.Under the ecological conservation scenario,the area of forest and shrub land increase significantly.Under the urban construction scenario,artificial surfaces expand greatly,and the area of cultivated land and grassland shows a decreasing trend.3)The ESV of the study area was 48.616 billion yuan,49.11 billion yuan and 48.986 million yuan in 2000,2010 and 2020,with the trend of increasing and then decreasing.The ESV will be 49.006 billion yuan,50.329 billion yuan and 49.828 billion yuan in 2030,under the three scenarios of business-as-usual,ecological conservation and urban construction,increasing to different degrees compared with 2020.4)The ESV of the study area decreases from upstream to downstream.The increase of ESV under the ecological conservation scenario and the decrease of ESV under the urban construction scenario are mainly concentrated in the surroundings of urban construction areas in central corridor and the forest and grassland areas in the southwest.In the future,it should consolidate the achievements of previous governance and promote sustainable ecological construction in the Shiyang River Basin.
patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)land use changeecosystem service value(ESV)multi-scenario simulationShiyang River Basin
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
