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黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的测度、时空差异及收敛性分析

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通过构建黄河流域水资源节约集约水平评价体系,考察其地区差异、时空演变及收敛性.具体为,以2011-2020 年黄河九省为研究对象,采用熵权法测度黄河流域水资源节约集约水平,运用Theil指数法、Kernel密度估计分析黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的时空差异,并利用空间杜宾模型和β收敛模型检验其影响因素及溢出效应.研究结果表明:1)研究期内,黄河流域水资源节约集约水平呈上升趋势,但时间阶段性、地区异质性特征明显.2)全流域空间差异的发展进程存在反复,在考察期内呈W型走势,主要差异来源为流域内部.3)动态演进呈现右移拖尾、尖窄峰到扁宽峰,全流域由双峰演变为三峰,分流域呈双峰俱乐部化,是空间非均衡性的表现.4)地区经济水平、技术创新、人口密度是影响黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的重要因素,具有空间溢出性.观察期内的水权制度实施对水资源节约集约水平的提升产生了政策因果效应.文中客观衡量了黄河流域水资源节约集约情况,为因时因地施策,推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供了数据支撑与量化基础.
Measurement,spatiotemporal variation and convergence of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin
By constructing an evaluation system for water resource conservation and intensification level in the Yellow River Basin,this study examines the regional variation,spatiotemporal evolution and convergence of water resource conservation and intensification level in the Yellow River Basin.Specifically,taking the nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2011 to 2020 as the research object,the entropy weight method was used to measure the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin.The Theil index method and Kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatiotemporal differences in the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the basin,and the spatial Durbin model and β convergence model were used to test their influencing factors and spillover effects.The results indicate that:1)During the study period,the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin is on the rise,but with obvious characteristics of regional heterogeneity and time phases.2)There are obvious regional variations in the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin,and the main source of the variations is the inter-regional differences.3)The overall distribution curve of water resource conservation and intensification level in the basin have evolved from double peaks to triple peaks,with an enhanced polarization phenomenon.4)There is a significant β convergence process in the research object,and the regional economic level,technological innovation,and population density are the important factors.The implementation of water rights system has had a policy causal effect on the improvement of water resource conservation and intensification.This paper provides data support and quantitative basis for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.

conservation and intensification of water resourcestatistical measurementspatiotemporal variationdynamic evolutionconvergencepolicy causal effects

刘佳、付鹏举、林春艳、王肇铧

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山东财经大学统计与数学学院,济南 250014

水资源节约集约 统计测度 时空差异 动态演进 收敛性 政策因果效应

国家社会科学基金项目

23BTJ035

2024

干旱区资源与环境
中国自然资源学会干旱半干旱地区研究委员会 内蒙古农业大学

干旱区资源与环境

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.492
ISSN:1003-7578
年,卷(期):2024.38(9)