Differential impacts of diversified dietary structures on arable land requirements and the optimization strategies in China
With the social and economic development and the improvement of people's living standards,the dietary structure of Chinese residents has been upgraded continuously,leading to the gradual expansion of food consumption demand and the consequent pressure on arable land resources.In this paper,the changes in the dietary structure for Chinese residents in 2000-2022 were analyzed based on the theory of arable land footprint,the LMDI decomposition method was used to quantify the contributions of population,dietary structure and technological progress to the arable land requirements,and the scenario analysis method was adopted to compare and analyze the arable land footprints under three scenarios of the current dietary structure,the plant-animal food balanced dietary structure,and the dietary structure recommended by the dietary guidelines.The results revealed that:1)The total food consumption of Chinese residents in 2022 increased by 35.9%compared with 2000.Arable land footprint of animal food increased significantly,while arable land footprint of plant food decreased year by year,especially for arable land footprint of grains.2)Dietary structure has gradually become the key factor influencing the requirements for arable land.The influence of demographic factor on increasing requirements for arable land has been weakening,and scientific and technological progress cannot balance the increase of requirements for arable land that caused by population growth and changes in dietary structure.3)The transition from the current dietary structure to the plant-animal food balanced dietary structure will lead to an increase in the diet arable land footprint per capita by 0.36 m2/d.There will be a noticeable increase in the number of provinces with deficits in arable land resources.The transition to the dietary structure recommended by the dietary guidelines will lead to a reduction in the diet arable land footprint per capita by 0.49 m2/d,thereby alleviating the pressure on arable land resources in most regions.This study proposes relevant countermeasures for optimizing the dietary structure of the residents,and provides scientific references for effective decision-making on the sustainable utilization of arable land resources in China.
dietary cultivated land footprintmulti-dietary structuresupply and demand for arable land resourcesLMDI decomposition method
万方数据
维普
