The Impact of RCEP Tariff Concession on China's Manufacturing Exports in the Region:An Estimation Based on the Approach of"Least-traded Products"
The entry into force of RCEP will have a significant impact on the development of China's export trade.Taking"least-traded products"as the starting point,this paper decomposes the export growth into two parts of"least-traded products"and"non-least-traded products",and constructs a new model for predicting the effect of the signing of free trade agreements on trade flow to evaluate the impact of joining RCEP on China's manufacturing export trade.The research shows that:firstly,the entry into force of RCEP will drive the export growth of China's manufacturing industry,and the export growth rate varies among different industries with the industries with a high proportion of"least-traded products"experiencing faster export growth;secondly,the average export growth rate of"least-traded products"is much higher than that of"non-least-traded products"and"least-traded products"contribute more to export growth;thirdly,China's export growth rate to different RCEP member countries varies,with a higher export growth rate to South Korea compared with other member countries.The research results of this paper will help to understand trade promotion effect of RCEP and provide reference for the adjustment of China's foreign trade policy.
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