The Cost of Deglobalization of Europe and the United States:Based on the Perspective of International Business Cycle Co-movement
Currently,the trend of deglobalization is on the rise,and unilateralism and trade protectionism rise significantly.Europe and the United States are attempting to increase the uncertainty of international trade environment policies that China faces through certain"deglobalization"means.This paper measures the regional business cycle co-movement based on the time series data of 39 major countries around the world from 1980 to 2020.Using the instrumental variable local projection model,the research reveals that the uncertainty of China's trade environment policies brought about by trade protectionism of Europe and the United States leads to a downward trend in business cycle co-movement growth in Europe,North America and Asia,ultimately hindering the economic integration process of alliance regions such as Europe and the United States.China's position as the world's largest trading country will lead to a"backlash effect"in the sanction measures imposed by Europe,the United States and other countries,causing harm to all.Faced with the deglobalization of Europe and the United States,China should further advance high-standard opening-up,adhere to multilateralism,strengthen regional cooperation,more actively build a community with a shared future for mankind and lead the development of globalization.
international business cycle co-movementdeglobalizationbacklash effecttrade protectionismuncertainty of trade environment policy
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
