首页|极端事件、市场共振与中国石油市场国际影响力

极端事件、市场共振与中国石油市场国际影响力

扫码查看
受到俄乌冲突加剧等多方面的影响,国内外石油市场均处于剧烈震荡状态,不利于中国经济平稳健康发展.基于此,文章深入挖掘石油市场之间的风险传染效应,构建全球石油市场风险传染网络,进而捕捉石油市场之间的差异化共振特征,实时解析中国石油市场的国际影响力.研究发现:(1)极端事件冲击能够加剧国内外石油市场之间的风险传染效应,导致石油市场呈现明显的风险聚类态势,进而引发石油市场共振.(2)在极端事件发生期间,中国石油市场可以向国际石油市场传递大量经济信息,国际影响力大幅增强.(3)伴随着时间的推移,中国石油市场的国际影响力逐渐增强,仅仅次于WTI与Brent石油市场,并且仍然具有较大的上升空间.
Extreme Events,Market Resonance and International Influence of China's Oil Market
Affected by the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other aspects,the domestic and foreign oil markets are in a state of severe shock,which is not conducive to the steady and healthy development of China's economy.Based on this,this paper delves into the risk contagion effect among oil markets,constructs a global oil market risk contagion network and captures the differentiated resonance characteristics among oil markets,so as to analyze the international influence of China's oil market in real time.The research shows that:(1)extreme event shocks exacerbate the risk contagion effect between domestic and international oil markets,leading to a significant risk clustering trend in oil market and triggering resonance in oil market;(2)during extreme events,China's oil market can transmit a large amount of economic information to international oil market,greatly enhancing its international influence;(3)with the passage of time,the international influence of China's oil market has gradually increased,second only to WTI and Brent oil markets,and still has a significant upward potential.

extreme eventsmarket resonanceoil marketinternational influencerisk contagion effect

隋建利、陈豪、刘金全

展开 >

吉林大学数量经济研究中心

极端事件 市场共振 石油市场 国际影响力 风险传染效应

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才支持计划

21&ZD073教人司[2021]527号

2024

国际经贸探索
广东外语外贸大学

国际经贸探索

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.409
ISSN:1002-0594
年,卷(期):2024.40(7)