The Influence of Refugee Crisis in the Destination Countries on China's Exports:Evidence From Trade Between China and Europe
Exploring the influencing mechanism of refugee influx on import trade is related to how China responds to refugee crisis in Europe so as to optimize trade structure and stabilize trade level.This paper designs a quasi-natural experiment based on the refugee crisis that occurred in Europe in 2013,and uses DID estimation and trade gravity model to examine the influence of refugee inflow into Europe on China's export trade.The results show that the refugee crisis in Europe has led to a decrease of 12％to 14％in China's export trade volume.Mechanism test reveals that refugee influx increases the approval ratings of left-wing populist parties and leads the mainstream parties to adopt trade protection measures,thus inhibiting China's export trade.Heterogeneity analysis shows that refugee crisis in Europe has a significant negative impact on the exports of labor-intensive processing trade products,while the exports of non-labor-intensive trade products are not affected;the refugee crisis will have greater negative impact on the countries or years which are more impacted by China's trade;the refugee crisis mainly exerts a significant negative impact on China's exports of fuel and lubricants,capital goods and their components and parts other than transportation equipment,and transportation equipment and its components and parts.The above results indicate that once the factor of refugee social integration is considered in economic policy analysis and the impact on labor costs is taken into account,the refugee influx is more likely to inhibit rather than promote trade.
refugee crisisimport trade with ChinaDIDquasi-natural experiment
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