首页|上游供应链供给冲击、宏观效应与应对政策研究

上游供应链供给冲击、宏观效应与应对政策研究

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近年受贸易保护主义等事件的影响,我国上游供应链不断受到冲击,供应链中断的风险加大.为此,本文首先构建BVAR模型,发现如下特征事实:负向的上游供应链供给冲击将导致产出、消费、投资和就业下降,通货膨胀率和名义利率上升.其次,构建含有垂直产业链结构、信贷约束和价格粘性的两部门新凯恩斯DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:DSGE模型能够较好地拟合上述特征事实.机制分析表明:负向的上游供应链供给冲击将使上游产出下降、价格上升,并通过价格传递渠道、中间品供给渠道和就业渠道向下游传导,最终使总产出下降和通货膨胀上升.最后,反事实模拟三类政策对冲负向的上游供应链供给冲击的政策效果发现:一是在长期的自主创新和进口替代政策中,降低进口中间品比重进而提高中间品国产化率的政策效果优于提高进口中间品的替代弹性;二是在税收政策方面,进口关税减税政策优于企业所得税减税政策;三是"双支柱"调控政策优于单一货币政策,而且盯住进口中间品价格的宏观审慎政策优于盯住上游产出和上游产出价格.在实施产业扶持政策时,将上述政策搭配在一起,将形成叠加效应,更有助于维护供应链安全.
Research on Upstream Supply Chain Supply Shock,Macro Effects and Policy Responses
In recent years,Western countries,spearheaded by the United States have imposed export restrictions and technology blockades on China in critical upstream product technology areas,such as chips.This has seriously affected the se-curity and stability of China's supply chain.This paper explores the macroeconomic implications and response strategies when the upstream supply chain is impacted by negative supply shock.Initially,a BVAR models is constructed,revealing that negative upstream supply chain supply shock results in a decline in output,consumption,investment,and employment,along with an increase in inflation and nominal interest rates.Subse-quently,a two-sector new Keynesian DSGE model incorporating a vertical industrial chain structure,credit constraints,and price stickiness is established.The numerical simulations show that the DSGE model better aligns with the above characteristic facts.A negative upstream supply chain supply shock will cause a decrease in upstream output and an increase in prices,which will be transmitted downstream through price transmission channels,intermediate goods supply channels,and employment channels,ultimately leading to a decrease in total output and an increase in inflation.Counterfactual simulation of three types of response policies found that,firstly,the policy effect of reducing the proportion of imported intermediate goods is better than increasing the substitution elasticity of imported intermediate goods.Secondly,in terms of tax policies,import tariff reduction policy are more effective than corporate income tax reduction policy.Thirdly,in terms of two-pillar policy regulation,the two-pillar policy is superior to a single monetary policy,and the macro prudential policy that focuses on imported intermediate goods prices is more effective than focusing on upstream output and upstream out-put prices.The policy recommendations are as follows.Firstly,China should continue to increase investment in scientific research,in-crease the localization rate of intermediate products,and ultimately achieve import substitution,which is the fundamental guar-antee for maintaining supply chain security.Secondly,emphasis should be placed on implementing import tariff reduction policy.Thirdly,macro prudential policies should tend to focus on the prices of imported intermediate goods.Fourthly,combin-ing the above policies will produce better industrial support effects.

Supply Chain ShockVertical Industrial ChainImport SubstitutionSupply Chain SecurityTwo-Pillar

刘河北

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广西财经学院海上丝绸之路与广西区域发展研究院

供应链冲击 垂直产业链 进口替代 供应链安全 双支柱

广西壮族自治区高等学校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目

2023KY0641

2024

国际金融研究
中国银行股份有限公司 中国国际金融学会

国际金融研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.183
ISSN:1006-1029
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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