Research on Upstream Supply Chain Supply Shock,Macro Effects and Policy Responses
In recent years,Western countries,spearheaded by the United States have imposed export restrictions and technology blockades on China in critical upstream product technology areas,such as chips.This has seriously affected the se-curity and stability of China's supply chain.This paper explores the macroeconomic implications and response strategies when the upstream supply chain is impacted by negative supply shock.Initially,a BVAR models is constructed,revealing that negative upstream supply chain supply shock results in a decline in output,consumption,investment,and employment,along with an increase in inflation and nominal interest rates.Subse-quently,a two-sector new Keynesian DSGE model incorporating a vertical industrial chain structure,credit constraints,and price stickiness is established.The numerical simulations show that the DSGE model better aligns with the above characteristic facts.A negative upstream supply chain supply shock will cause a decrease in upstream output and an increase in prices,which will be transmitted downstream through price transmission channels,intermediate goods supply channels,and employment channels,ultimately leading to a decrease in total output and an increase in inflation.Counterfactual simulation of three types of response policies found that,firstly,the policy effect of reducing the proportion of imported intermediate goods is better than increasing the substitution elasticity of imported intermediate goods.Secondly,in terms of tax policies,import tariff reduction policy are more effective than corporate income tax reduction policy.Thirdly,in terms of two-pillar policy regulation,the two-pillar policy is superior to a single monetary policy,and the macro prudential policy that focuses on imported intermediate goods prices is more effective than focusing on upstream output and upstream out-put prices.The policy recommendations are as follows.Firstly,China should continue to increase investment in scientific research,in-crease the localization rate of intermediate products,and ultimately achieve import substitution,which is the fundamental guar-antee for maintaining supply chain security.Secondly,emphasis should be placed on implementing import tariff reduction policy.Thirdly,macro prudential policies should tend to focus on the prices of imported intermediate goods.Fourthly,combin-ing the above policies will produce better industrial support effects.