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外部冲击、金融业开放与"双支柱"调控

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面对高度复杂不确定的外部环境,如何设计政策组合以实现金融业开放、汇率市场化以及国内经济恢复等多重宏观经济目标具有重要的理论与现实意义.为此,本文构建一个具有金融业开放特征的多部门DSGE模型,分析货币政策与宏观审慎政策"双支柱"调控框架应对外部冲击的作用机制与福利效果,并讨论金融业开放水平对汇率制度选择与政策协调搭配的影响.研究表明:为应对外部冲击,中央银行对汇率波动进行管理的力度需要随金融业开放水平的提高而不断加大.同时,金融业开放水平越高,宏观审慎政策逆周期调节银行资产负债表以稳定金融系统乃至整个宏观经济的效果越好.进一步地,在"双支柱"调控框架下,货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调搭配使用不仅可以带来显著的福利改进,而且能够降低央行对汇率波动的最优管理程度,提高货币政策独立性,从而为实现金融业开放、汇率市场化以及国内经济恢复等多重目标创造条件.
External Shocks,Financial Openness and Dual-Pillar Regulatory Framework
In the current highly complex and uncertain external environment,it is of great theoretical and practical sig-nificance to investigate how to achieve multiple macroeconomic objectives such as financial openness,exchange rate liberaliza-tion,and domestic economic recovery through policy combination design.This paper constructs a multi-sectoral Dynamic Sto-chastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model with features of financial openness to analyze the mechanism and welfare impli-cation of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macroprudential policy in response to external shocks.Additionally,the paper explores the impact of the level of financial openness on the choice of exchange rate regimes and the co-ordination of policies.Numerical simulation results indicate that,firstly,to address external shocks,the central bank needs to intensify its man-agement of exchange rate volatility with the increasing level of financial openness.Simultaneously,the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy in counter-cyclically adjusting bank balance sheets improves with a higher level of financial openness,stabi-lizing the financial sector and,consequently,the entire macroeconomy.Moreover,within the"dual-pillar"regulatory frame-work,the coordinated use of monetary policy and macroprudential policy not only brings about significant welfare improve-ments but also reduces the optimal degree of central bank management of exchange rate volatility.This,then,enhances the in-dependence of monetary policy,creating conditions for achieving the multiple goals of financial openness,exchange rate liberal-ization,and domestic economic recovery.In comparison to existing research,this paper makes several contributions.Firstly,the paper provides an insightful complement to the literature,which has less often analyzed dual-pillar regulation from the perspective of financial openness.Secondly,by investigating the policy combination design needed for simultaneous financial openness and exchange rate liberal-ization,this paper provides quantitative research support for policymaking to achieve multiple macroeconomic objectives.Thirdly,the paper discusses the existence of macroprudential policies and the influence of different regulatory intensities on the independence of monetary policy,offering theoretical insights for enhancing monetary policy independence and adhering to a policy stance that balances internal and external equilibrium in the context of financial openness.

External ShocksFinancial OpennessDual-Pillar RegulatoryExchange Rate VolatilityMacropruden-tial Regulation

温兴春、闫歆玙

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对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院

外部冲击 金融业开放 "双支柱"调控 汇率波动 宏观审慎监管

国家自然科学基金青年基金教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项对外经济贸易大学项目对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新项目

7210303721YJC790125CXTD14-04202348

2024

国际金融研究
中国银行股份有限公司 中国国际金融学会

国际金融研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.183
ISSN:1006-1029
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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