The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Level of African Sovereign Debt——An Empirical Test Based on Difference-in-Difference
In the process of China-Africa cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative,there are some international criti-cisms about the impact of the initiative on the sovereign debt of African countries,especially the"debt trap theory"which has been widely spread in the international community.In the face of various skeptical voices,this study will assess the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Africa's debt from the perspective of objective data to respond.This study tests the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on African debt based on panel data from 54 countries from 2011 to 2019.Research findings are as follows.Firstly,China's Belt and Road Initiative has a significant negative impact on China's external debt ratio,which significantly reduces the proportion of foreign debt flows to GDP.The results were furtherly tested by a variety of robustness tests,including temporal heterogeneity test,placebo test and propensity score Matching differ-ence in difference method(PSM-DID).Secondly,for African participating countries with low GDP growth rate and financial development level,or diversified econmies.Thirdly,the Belt and Road Initiative has reduced the debt ratio of African countries mainly through positive intermediation effects such as economic growth,exports,investment and infrastructure.An accurate understanding and comprehensive assessment of the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the debt sus-tainability of African countries is conducive to policymakers making informed external borrowing decisions,ensuring debt sus-tainability and macroeconomic stability.It is also an important guarantee for high-quality cooperation,and is related to the fur-ther implementation of Vision 2035 for China-Africa Cooperation and the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
The Belt and Road InitiativeDebt Trap TheoryAfrican Sovereign DebtDifference-in-Difference
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