Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Macroprudential Policies and Abnormal Capital Flow Movements
In the context of complex and volatile international and domestic economic and financial conditions,the in-crease in macroeconomic uncertainties across countries has become an important driver of abnormal capital flow movements,which also has a significant impact on a country's financial stability and the formulation of macroeconomic policies.Based on the panel data of 40 countries from 1998 QI to 2020 Q3,this paper adopts the CLogLog model to study the im-pact and heterogeneity of macroeconomic uncertainty on abnormal capital flow movements,exploring the regulatory effects of macroprudential policies.The results show that when macroeconomic uncertainty rises,the probability of the surge and the flight decreases,and the probability of the stop and the retrenchment increases.The results of the heterogeneity analysis sug-gest that the rise of macroeconomic uncertainty has a greater impact on the flight and the retrenchment in developed economies,those with higher levels of financial development,and those with higher institutional quality.The results of macroprudential policies moderation suggest that the overall adjustments of macroprudential policy cannot effectively mitigate the impact of mac-roeconomic uncertainty on abnormal capital flow movements.However,when macroeconomic uncertainty rises,loosing foreign exchange instruments can reduce the probability of the stop,the flight and the retrenchment.In contrast,non-foreign exchange instruments have a limited role in moderating the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on abnormal capital flow movements.The marginal contribution of this paper is that it focuses on the impact of economic uncertainty on abnormal capital flow movements from the perspective of pull factors,expands the related research on the consequences of macroeconomic uncer-tainty,and provides a policy basis for policymakers to regulate abnormal capital flow movements from the perspective of macro-prudential policies.
Macroeconomic UncertaintyAbnormal Capital Flow MovementsForeign Exchange InstrumentsMacro-prudential Policies
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
