Technical Speculation,Credit Expansion and Tech-Asset Bubbles:Detection and Analysis of NASDAQ Asset Bubbles and Risks
Following the 43％rise in the NASDAQ stock market in 2023,the market continued to climb by over 18％in the first half of 2024,with the increase heavily concentrating among the seven major technology companies.After April 2024,technology stocks and non-technology enterprise stocks exhibited diverging performance.Technology stocks continued to rise,while non-technology stocks began to decline.This indicated that the market expectations for technology and non-technology enterprises started to diverge,and discussions began regarding the existence of a bubble in the NASDAQ stock market(Dalio Ray,2024;Goldman Sachs,2024;Min Zhu et al.,2024).Strengthening the monitoring and early warning of risks in the inter-national capital market,especially the risk of asset bubbles in the international stock market,is crucial to China's economic se-curity and the healthy development of social stability.Therefore,this paper conducted research and analysis on the potential bubbles and risks in the NASDAQ stock market.It firstly uses the GSADF test method to measure and detect the level of asset bubbles in the NASDAQ index from 1974 to 2024.The study found that the NASDAQ index had exhibited a significant asset bubble since 2020,with a GSADF value of 1.21,which was higher than the 2007 housing bubble but lower than the 2000 inter-net bubble.To further explore the causes of the bubble,this paper further constructed a DSGE-AP model by combining the eco-nomic fundamentals and asset pricing equation to deeply analyze the causes of the asset bubble in the U.S.stock market.The study identified three main driving factors behind the NASDAQ stock market asset bubble:abnormal market sentiment result-ing from stock return shocks,the impact of the advances of GPT technology,and unsustainable technology speculation due to the lack of large-scale real-world application,along with the credit expansion incluenced by the impact of monetary policy.Currently,all these three factors are in a significantly sensitive phase.The risk of a significant adjustment of the NASDAQ in-dex bubble since 2020 depends on three factors:the timing of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy,whether tech-nological progress can keep up with the pace of the bubble expansion,and whether non-technology enterprises can invest in and widely use GPT technology to promote economic growth and prevent a recession in the United States.Only when technologi-cal innovation can keep pace with the market expectation,and the U.S.economy can achieve a"soft landing"with accommo-dative liquidity,can the risk of a significant adjustment of this round of asset bubbles be effectively avoided.The research find-ings of this paper contribute to the literature on the formation,expansion,and collapse mechanisms of technology asset bubbles in a general sense,provide an extended research framework for macro-theoretical modeling in financial markets,and also put forward policy recommendations for the risk prevention of China's financial market.
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