Reform of the International Monetary System under the New Global Changes:Driving Factors,Scheme Comparison and Prospects
Since the 21st century,the stability and sustainability of the current international monetary system dominated by the US dollar have been questioned.With the new global upheavals such as the COVID-19 pandemic,the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and the wave of US dollar interest rate hikes,calls for reform of the international monetary system have grown,and there are diverse opinions on the direction of its future evolution.This paper compares the reform proposals for the international monetary system and provides a forecast on its future evolu-tion based on the underlying driving factors.From the perspective of driving factors,the global economic landscape is becoming multipolar.The industrial chain is shifting towards regionalization,decentralization,and fragmentation.Additionally,the global financial market is further fragmenting,and the international political order is undergoing adjustment and rearrangement.Rep-resentative reform proposals include the Bretton Woods Ⅲ system anchored in commodities,the integrated supranational cur-rency system based on SDR or digital currency,and a diversified currency system based on multiple reserve currencies.Based on an analysis of currency issuance and competition,this paper believes that a diversified international monetary system is a more realistic development direction.While digital currency may have some marginal impact,its uncertainty remains.The internationalization of the RMB may face new opportunities in the process of reforming the international monetary sys-tem.In the future,China should play a more active role in the reconstruction of the international monetary order and steadily and solidly promote the internationalization of the RMB based on the goals of security and development.The top priority is to maintain stable economic growth.Following that,attention should be paid to optimizing the promotion strategy of the RMB inter-nationalization.This includes aligning it with the restructuring of the industrial chain,the Belt and Road Initiative,and the RCEP region;enhancing the interaction between the onshore market and the offshore market,and actively exploring the possi-bility of cross-border use of digital RMB.
International Monetary SystemCurrency InternationalizationReform PlanRMB Internationalization
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