Constructing the Dual Circulation New Development Pattern from the Perspective of Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Security——Based on A Macro Model of Open Economies
Trade protectionism and various sanctions present challenges to the smooth operation of industrial and supply chains.This paper categorizes these challenges from a risk perspective into supply chain and demand chain disruption,and ex-amines policies and measures to mitigate disruption risks and ensure the security of industrial and supply chains.Building on existing research on limited attention and rational inattention,this paper proposes a preference adjustment ap-proach.Specifically,under open economy conditions,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model is constructed,assuming that economic agents have variable preferences domestically and internationally,influenced by government policies that guide and adjust both supply and demand.Additionally,this paper proposes a method for calculating the inner circulation ratio,integrating it into macroeconomic regulation to support research on establishing the dual circulation new development pat-tern.The effects of preference adjustment and other policies are compared in response to external shocks that affect the domes-tic economy's supply and demand chains.This study utilizes data from 102 quarters,covering China and the United States from Q2 1995 to Q3 2020.The model re-sults indicate that risk-sensitive preference adjustment is superior to other adjustment methods.It not only mitigates the impact of external shocks on economic variables but also increases the inner circulation ratio with minimal welfare loss.Furthermore,Integrating the inner circulation ratio into preference adjustment further alleviates the procyclicality associated with preference adjustments based solely on risk sensitivity.To better ensure the security of industrial and supply chains,this paper suggests exploring the integration of preference ad-justment into policy control tools,actively considering chain disruption risks and the inner circulation ratio as relevant decision-making factors.Additionally,while promoting technological innovation,it is essential to establish and improve produc-tion subsidy and incentive policies to advance the construction of a new development pattern.
Preference AdjustmentIndustrial Chain and Supply Chain SecuritySupply Chain DisruptionDemand Chain DisruptionInner Circulation Ratio
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