Global Economic Policy Uncertainty,Short-Term Cross-Border Capital Flows and Systemic Financial Risk
This paper provides a theoretical discussion on the mediating and feedback roles of short-term cross-border capital flows in the transmission of global economic policy uncertainty to systemic financial risks in China,and empirically ex-amines their time-varying correlation characteristics using MS-VAR models.The research results indicate that the mediating role of short-term cross-border capital flows generally increases systemic financial risk in both stable and volatile periods.Although its feedback role increases systemic financial risk in stable periods,its short-term and long-term impact on systemic financial risk is different in volatile periods.In the short term,it alleviates sys-temic financial risk,whereas in the long term,it amplifies it.Due to the enhanced convertibility of the renminbi following the currency reform,both roles of short-term cross-border capital flows have alleviated the negative impact of global economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risks.The mediat-ing and feedback roles of different types of short-term cross-border capital flows have varying impacts on systemic financial risks in different periods.Therefore,monitoring and early warning systems should be tailored to these flows and periods.
Global Economic Policy UncertaintyShort-Term Cross-Border Capital FlowsSystemic Financial Risk
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