萨伊定律成立情景与条件的理论模型解析
Analysis of the Theoretical Model for the Scenarios and Conditions Under Which Say's Law Holds
宗良 1郝毅 1吴泽文2
作者信息
- 1. 中国银行研究院
- 2. 国投资本股份有限公司
- 折叠
摘要
本文基于扩展的乘数-加速数模型视角,对萨伊定律成立的场景及条件进行解析,同时利用中美两国数据进行实证检验.研究发现:第一,萨伊定律在一定条件下能够成立.当经济运行在周期范围内,且振幅随时间快速趋近于零时,萨伊定律成立.第二,萨伊定律和凯恩斯有效需求理论的成立条件具有共轭性,二者相互补充.第三,利用中美两国数据进行实证检验发现,在某些特定条件下,存在非常接近萨伊定律成立的情况,萨伊定律对现实具有相应的解释力.新形势下萨伊定律的内涵更加丰富,本文的研究结论对于我国更好地统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革,实现国民经济良性循环具有参考价值.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the scenarios and conditions under which Say's Law holds true from an expanded per-spective based on the multiplier-accelerator model,and also conducts empirical analysis using data from China and the United States.The findings are as follows:First,Say's Law holds true under specific conditions.When the economy operates within a cyclical range and the amplitude approaches zero over time,Say's Law remains valid.Second,the conditions for the validity of Say's Law and Keynes's Law are complementary,with each complementing the other.Third,empirical testing using data from China and the United States shows that,under specific conditions,Say's Law holds nearly true in some instances,demonstrat-ing its explanatory power in real-world scenarios.In the new context,the connotation of Say's Law is enriched.The findings of this paper offer valuable insights for China to better coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and the deepening of supply-side structural reform,fostering a virtuous circle in the national economy.
关键词
萨伊定律/乘数-加速数模型/理论解析Key words
Say's Law/Multiplier-Accelerator Model/Theoretical Analysis引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
NETL
NSTL
万方数据