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"特朗普主义"贸易行为与中美经贸关系

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本文探讨了"特朗普主义"贸易理念和特朗普再次上台后可能采取的贸易措施对中美经贸关系的影响.2018 年以来,中美经贸摩擦对中国出口贸易规模、结构和盈余都产生了较大的冲击,但中国对美贸易也展现出充分的韧性,包括未被征税产品的出口增长、出口增加值的持续扩大以及海外供应链重组下新贸易地理格局的形成.未来中国面对特朗普2.0 可能实施的高关税、取消永久正常贸易关系、要求扩大进口承诺以及针对产业政策的"301 条款"行动要做好充分的应对,通过加强出口多元化、扩大内需和内循环、巩固国内供应链体系、加快海外投资布局、灵活调整汇率与税率等方式积极和有效应对外部冲击.
"Trumpism"Trade Behavior and Sino-U.S.Economic and Trade Relations
This paper examines the impact of"Trumpism"trade ideology and plausi-ble trade measures that may be implemented by the new Trump administration on Sino-U.S.economic and trade relations.Since 2018,Sino-U.S.trade frictions have signifi-cantly affected the scale,structure,and surplus of China's exports.Nevertheless,China's trade with the U.S.has demonstrated considerable resilience,including the growth in ex-ports of products that were not subject to restrictive tariffs,continuous growth of value-added exports,and the formation of new trade geographic patterns with the restructuring of China's overseas supply chains.In the future,in the context of Trump-era trade policy 2.0,China must prepare for high tariffs,the revocation of Permanent Normal Trade Rela-tions,mandated import expansion commitments,and"Section 301"actions targeting Chinese industrial policies.China should respond to external shocks actively and effective-ly by diversifying exports,expanding domestic demand and internal circulation,consolida-ting the domestic supply chain system,accelerating outward foreign direct investments,and adjusting exchange and tax rates.

"Trumpism"Sino-U.S.Economic and Trade RelationsTariffs

盛斌、靳晨鑫

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南开大学经济学院

南开大学APEC研究中心

"特朗普主义" 中美经贸关系 关税

2025

国际贸易问题
对外经济贸易大学

国际贸易问题

北大核心
影响因子:2.14
ISSN:1002-4670
年,卷(期):2025.(1)