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发展中国家数字技术创新与国际供应风险传导——基于进口贸易视角

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在全球重大灾害频发背景下,如何防范贸易伙伴风险的国际传导是发展中国家面临的一个重要问题.本文利用2005-2021 年42 个发展中国家从世界各国的进口贸易数据,考察发展中国家数字技术创新能否以及如何缓解贸易伙伴供应风险的国际传导.研究发现,发展中国家数字技术创新有利于缓解国际供应风险,助力进口贸易稳定发展,该结论在控制内生性问题和稳健性检验后依旧成立.机制检验显示,数字技术创新主要通过市场筛选效应和市场转换效应两个渠道发挥作用.异质性分析发现,外部环境如发展中国家数字基础设施建设水平、物流基础设施建设水平等均能充分发挥数字技术创新对国际风险输入的防范作用.本研究一方面为发展中国家制定政策以规避贸易伙伴国际供应风险传导提供了基于数字技术创新的新思路,另一方面从国际贸易视角为深刻理解数字技术创新对国际供应风险传导影响提供了一个充分的解释.
Digital Technology Innovation in Developing Countries and International Supply Risk Transmission—From the Perspective of Import Trade
Given the frequency of significant disasters throughout the world,preven-ting the worldwide transmission of risks from trading partners is a critical concern for de-veloping countries.Using import trade data from 42 developing countries from 2005 to 2021,this research investigates whether and how digital technology innovation in develo-ping countries reduces the transmission of international supply risk from trading partners.This research indicates that digital technology innovation in developing countries is condu-cive to alleviating international supply risks,and to promote stable growth of international trade.This conclusion still holds after controlling endogeneity and conducting robustness tests.Mechanism test shows that digital technology innovation mainly works through two channels:market screening effect and market switching effect.Heterogeneity analysis re-veals that external environments,such as the level of digital infrastructure construction and logistics infrastructure construction in developing countries,can give full play to the pre-ventive effect of digital technology innovation on international risk input.On the one hand,this study provides new ideas based on digital technology innovation for developing countries to formulate policies to avoid international supply risk transmission from trading partners,and on the other hand,this paper also provides an adequate explanation from the perspective of international trade to deeply understand the impact of digital technology in-novation on international supply risk transmission.

Digital Technology InnovationInternational Supply Risk TransmissionImport TradeMarket Adjustment

王梦颖

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中共浙江省委党校(浙江行政学院)经济学教研部

浙江省"八八战略"创新发展研究院

数字技术创新 国际供应风险传导 进口贸易 市场调整

2025

国际贸易问题
对外经济贸易大学

国际贸易问题

北大核心
影响因子:2.14
ISSN:1002-4670
年,卷(期):2025.(1)