首页|人工智能与增加值贸易网络地位提升——兼论技术距离的调节效应

人工智能与增加值贸易网络地位提升——兼论技术距离的调节效应

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以人工智能为代表的新一轮科技革命是中国实现高水平对外开放和贸易高质量发展的重要依托.本文构建了人工智能影响增加值贸易网络地位的理论机制,利用2005-2018 年45 个国家制造业数据进行实证检验,同时分析技术距离的调节效应.研究结果显示:人工智能显著提升了增加值贸易网络地位;人工智能对发达国家和发展中国家的增加值贸易网络地位均具有显著的提升效应,但对发展中国家的提升效应更强;相对于劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业,人工智能对技术密集型行业增加值贸易网络地位的提升效应更为显著;人工智能对内资企业和外资企业的增加值贸易网络地位均具有显著的提升效应,但对外资企业的提升效应更强.机制检验显示,人工智能主要通过加速劳动力替代和释放国内消费潜力促进增加值贸易网络地位提升.拓展性分析表明,人工智能对增加值贸易网络地位的正向影响并不存在"低端锁定"效应,但会受到技术距离的负向调节,且该调节效应在发达国家、资本密集型行业和内资企业中更强.
Artificial Intelligence and Value-added Trade Network Position Improvement—On the Moderating Effect of Technology Distance
This paper formed a theoretical mechanism on how AI influenced the status of value-added trade network.Through empirical tests using manufacturing data spanning the period 2005 to 2018 across 45 nations,the study further analyzed the moderating effect of technological distance.The study finds that AI significantly enhances the status of value-added trade networks.Specifically,AI has a significant upgrading effect on the value-add-ed trade network status of both developed and developing countries,with a stronger effect observed in developing countries.At the same time,compared with labor-and capital-in-tensive industries,AI demonstrates a better upgrading effect on the value-added trade net-work status within technology-intensive industries.Besides,AI shows a notable upgrading effect on the value-added trade network status of both domestically-funded and foreign-funded enterprises.However,AI demonstrates a stronger upgrading effect on foreign-fund-ed enterprises.The mechanism test reveals that AI primarily promotes the value-added trade network status through accelerating labor substitution and unleashing domestic con-sumption potential.The expansion analysis shows that the positive impact of AI on the sta-tus of value-added trade network does not have the effect of"low-end lock-in".However,it is negatively moderated by technological distance,and the moderating effect is stronger in developed countries,capital-intensive industries and domestically-funded enterprises.

Artificial Intelligence(AI)Value-added TradeNetwork PositionTechnology DistanceModerating Effect

周宏伟、庞素勤、刘曙光

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南开大学 经济学院,天津 300110

华中科技大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉 430074

中国海洋大学 经济学院,山东 青岛 266100

人工智能 增加值贸易 网络地位 技术距离 调节效应

2025

对外经济贸易大学学报:国际商务版
对外经济贸易大学

对外经济贸易大学学报:国际商务版

北大核心
影响因子:0.981
ISSN:1002-4034
年,卷(期):2025.(1)