Construction of an LASSO risk model for severe hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis
Objective To construct a model to predict the risk of severe hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis(sHTGAP)by the LASSO regression model.Methods The clinical data of 315 patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis(HTGAP)treated in Hanzhong Central Hospital between January 2019 and March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.The patients were divided into an sHTGAP group(94 cases),including 59 males and 35 females who were(37.51±7.08)years old,and a non-sHTGAP group(221 cases),including 135 males and 86 females who were(41.87±6.28)years old,according to the disease severity.The clinical data and laboratory indicators were compared between the two groups.t test,rank sum test,and x2 test were applied.The LASSO regression model was used to screen the characteristic factors and construct the risk score model.Results There were no statistical differences in gender,diabetes history,hypertension,smoking history,drinking history,and diet between the two groups(all P＞0.05).The scores of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)and Modified CT Severity Index(MCTSI),white blood cell count(WBC),C-reactive protein(CRP),glucose(Glu),and triglycerides(TG)in the sHTGAP group were higher than those in the non-sHTGAP group[9.00(7.00,11.00)vs.4.00(3.00,6.00),6.00(5.00,7.00)vs.4.00(3.00,6.00),12.22(9.89,14.34)×109/L vs.10.44(8.58,12.39)×109/L,164.25(128.32,217.58)mg/L vs.56.15(37.13,76.95)mg/L,(12.16±2.99)mmol vs.(6.27±2.42)mmol,and(14.05±5.10)mmol/L vs.(11.46±4.78)mmol/L];the hospitalization time in the sHTGAP group was shorter than that in the non-sHTGAP group[13.00(8.00,16.00)d vs.9.00(5.00,13.00)d];the calcium ion(Ca2+)in the sHTGAP group were lower than that in the non-sHTGAP group[(2.12±0.09)mmol/L vs.(2.17±0.09)mmol/L];there were statistical differences(all P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk score model constructed by the LASSO regression was 0.998;it was better than any single indicator.Conclusions APACHE Ⅱscore,MCTSI score,hospitalization time,WBC,and levels of CRP,Glu,Ca2+,and TG are closely related to the occurrence and severity of sHTGAP.Comprehensive evaluation of these indicators is of great significance to improve the prognosis of patients with sHTGAP.
万方数据
维普
