Construction of a nomogram model for predicting the mortality risk within half a year after hip fracture surgery in the elderly
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of death within half a year after hip fracture surgery in the elderly and construct an individualized prediction nomogram model.Methods The clinical data of 458 elderly patients with hip fracture who underwent surgical treatment in Xi'an Honghui Hospital from May 2020 to August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed,including 214 males and 244 females,aged 65-94(75.89±7.72)years.The patients were divided into a death group(43 cases)and a survival group(415 cases)according to whether they survived within half a year after surgery.The clinical data of the two groups were collected,and the influencing factors of death within half a year after hip fracture surgery were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis.R software was used to draw the nomogram model,and the consistency of the nomogram model was verified by the calibration curve.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was used to evaluate the prediction value and discrimination of the model.Independent sample t test,Mann-Whitney U test,and x2 test were used for statistical analysis.Results The mortality rate of elderly patients within half a year after hip fracture surgery was 9.39％(43/458).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.167,95％CI:1.088-1.250)and type of comorbidities(OR=1.986,95％CI:1.143-3.452)were risk factors for death within half a year after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients,and skeletal muscle content(OR=0.814,95％CI:0.715-0.925)and hemoglobin(OR=0.923,95％CI:0.868-0.981)were protective factors(all P＜0.05).The area under the curve was 0.899(95％CI:0.888-0.923)of the nomogram model in the prediction of death within half a year after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients,with good discrimination.The slope of calibration curve of the nomogram model for the prediction of death within half a year after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-fit test showed good consistency(x2=4.091,P=0.849).Conclusions This study constructed a nomogram model based on four influencing factors:age,type of comorbidities,skeletal muscle content,and hemoglobin,to predict the mortality risk within half a year after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients.It had relatively good discriminability and consistency,and could provide a reference basis for developing personalized intervention measures in clinical practice.
Hip fractureElderlyHalf a year after surgeryDeathInfluencing factorsNomogram
万方数据
维普
