洪涝诱发城市下穿隧道工程灾害风险评价研究
Research on Disaster Risk Assessment of Urban Underpass Tunnel Engineering Induced by Floods
李长寿 1张素君1
作者信息
- 1. 山东欣鹏安全技术咨询有限公司,济南 250100
- 折叠
摘要
为解决城市洪涝诱发下穿隧道工程灾害风险的量化分析问题,分析了隧道工程洪涝的致灾、孕灾、承灾和减灾等因素,构建了城市下穿隧道洪涝风险评价模型.采用AHP-FCE模型评价法,选择某下穿隧道工程作为应用实例,借助AHP法获得了各层级指标的两两权重数据,依靠FCE法实现了各层级指标的评判得分.结果表明:1)防灾减灾能力指标对隧道工程洪涝灾害的影响程度最显著,承灾体脆弱性指标诱发隧道工程洪涝灾害的可能性最大,该下穿隧道在综合评价中获得"中等"风险等级,对施工质量和进度产生较大影响,需采取基本预防措施;2)提出了在城市下穿隧道洪涝风险治理方面应重点关注和改进的风险指标,实现了下穿隧道工程在洪涝情景下灾害风险的定量评级.
Abstract
In order to solve the problem of quantitative analysis of disaster risk of urban flood induced underpass tunnel engineering,the factors of disaster causing,disaster pregnant,disaster bearing and disaster reduction of tunnel engineering flood were analyzed,and the flood risk evaluation model of urban underpass tunnel engineering was constructed.The AHP-FCE model evaluation method is used to select an underpass tunnel project as an application example.The pairwise weight data of each level index are obtained by AHP method,and the evaluation scores of each level index are achieved by using the FCE method.The results show that:1)Tthe disaster prevention and mitigation ability index has the most significant impact on the flood disaster of tunnel engineering,and the vulnerability index of disaster bearing body has the greatest possibility to induce the flood disaster of tunnel engineering.The underpass tunnel has a"medium"risk level in the comprehensive evaluation,which has a great impact on the construction quality and progress,and basic preventive measures need to be taken.2)The paper puts forward the risk indicators that should be focused on and improved in the flood risk management of urban underpass tunnel,and realizes the quantitative rating of disaster risk of Underpass tunnel engineering under the flood scenario.
关键词
城市洪涝/下穿隧道/防灾减灾/风险评价/地质灾害/层次分析/模糊综合评价Key words
urban flooding/underpass tunnel/disaster prevention and reduction/risk assessment/geological disaster/analytic hierarchy process/fuzzy comprehensive assessment引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据