Is More Money Better?The Spatio-temporal Relationship between Rural Credit and Rural Industrial Upgrading——Empirical Analysis Based on SAR Model and SEM Model
Rural credit is an important guarantee for the upgrading of rural industries and provides financial support for rural economic development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1978 to 2017,this paper established spatial autoregressive model(SAR)and spatial error model(SEM)based on the theoretical framework of the impact of rural credit on rural industrial upgrading,and empirically analyzed the spatial-temporal relationship between rural credit and rural industrial upgrading.The results show that the rural industrial upgrading presents spatial clustering in geographical location;The expansion of rural credit scale to a certain extent will have an inhibitory effect on the upgrading of rural industry,showing an"inverted U-shaped"nonlinear relationship;Among them,due to the difference of agricultural resources,there is an"inverted U-shaped"relationship in the eastern region and the central region on the whole,while there is no"inverted U-shaped"relationship in the western region.The further analysis shows that the"inverted U-shaped"relationship is the most significant in the main grain-producing areas.Among the three grain-producing areas,there is an obvious"inverted U-shaped"relationship in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Yangtze River Basin,while there is no such relationship in the northeast region.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy Suggestions,such as giving play to the spatial agglomeration effect of rural industrial upgrading,sticking to the principle of adapting measures to local conditions in rural credit,appropriately expanding the scale of rural credit,and sticking to the combination of market mechanism and government guidance.
Rural creditUpgrading of rural industriesRural financeGrain outputSpace effect
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
