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基于演化博弈的中国乡村能源转型多主体协同机制研究

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乡村空间已成为中国碳达峰碳中和战略实施的重要场域之一。构建新能源企业、农户和地方政府三方博弈模型,进行博弈主体策略选择与演化均衡分析,利用生物质分散式清洁能源案例等真实数据开展三方演化博弈仿真分析,揭示相关因素影响乡村能源转型多主体协同机制的作用机理。研究发现:新能源企业"积极支持"、农户"参与"以及地方政府"高标准推进"的概率,与其采取相应策略的收益净值呈现正相关关系。伴随农户能源转型收益的增长,其选择"参与"策略的演化速度趋于加快。新能源企业"消极支持"的处罚额度越大,其选择"积极支持"策略的演化速度也越快。地方政府获得的生态补偿金以及环境收益越大,其采取"高标准推进"策略的演化速度越快。此外,乡村能源转型博弈主体初始意愿强弱也引致了博弈稳定策略演化速度的差异,相关博弈主体的初始意愿值越大,博弈策略收敛于稳定点的演化速度越快。最后,从乡村能源转型的多方协作、农户优先等多个维度提出了政策建议。
Research on Multi-Subject Synergy Mechanism of Energy Transition in Chinese Countryside Based on the Evolutionary Gam
Rural areas have become one of the crucial areas for the implementation of peak car-bon neutral strategy in China.A tripartite game model of new energy enterprises,farmers and local governments was constructed,strategy selection,evolutionary equilibrium analysis and numerical tests were conducted,and simulation analysis of the tripartite evolutionary game was carried out us-ing real data such as biomass decentralized clean energy,in order to reveal the role of related factors in influencing the construction of multi-agency synergistic mechanism for rural energy transition.It is found that the probabilities of"active support"by new energy enterprises,"active participation"by farmers,and"high-standard promotion"by local governments are positively correlated with the net benefits of their respective strategies.As the benefits of energy transition to farmers increase,the development of the"participation"strategy accelerates.The greater the penalty for"negative support"of a new energy company,the faster the development of its"positive support"strategy.The greater the ecological compensation and environmental benefits received by local governments,the faster the development of their"high standard support"strategy.In addition,the strength of the initial willingness of the main body of the rural energy transition game also leads to differences in the evolution speed of the game's stabilization strategy,and the greater the initial willingness of the main body of the game,the faster the evolution speed of the game's strategy to converge to the sta-bilization point.Finally,policy suggestions are made around the dimensions of multi-party coopera-tion and farmers'priority in rural energy transition.

Rural energy transformationEvolutionary game analysisSimulation analysis

牛文涛、董安洞、陈晓

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郑州大学 乡村振兴研究院,河南 郑州 450001

郑州大学 管理学院,河南 郑州 450001

乡村能源转型 演化博弈 仿真分析

2024

管理现代化
中国管理现代化研究会

管理现代化

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.676
ISSN:1003-1154
年,卷(期):2024.44(6)