Research on the Mechanism of Local Government Debt to Systemic Financial Risks
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China point-ed out the necessary to maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks,but the rapidly expanding local government debt has become an important factor threatening financial stability.Depend on above situation,this paper analyzes the relationship between local govern-ment debt and systemic financial risks through following aspects:shadow banking scale,com-mercial bank credit and real estate prices.Empirical research shows that the expansion of local government debt would trigger systemic financial risk,and the impact has time lag and spatial spillover;Shadow banking,commercial bank credit and real estate prices have an intermediary effect but only the transmission path of shadow banking and real estate prices has spatial link-age.In this regard,the future measures to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks are to"curb the increment,dissolve the stock",diversify the sources of debt funds to weaken the role of"cash machines"of commercial banks,weaken the dominant position of shadow banks in debt raising,and digest real estate related risks.
Local government debtSystemic financial riskShadow bankingBank creditReal estate price
万方数据
维普
