首页|甘南高原输出地表径流量演变趋势分析

甘南高原输出地表径流量演变趋势分析

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[目的]甘南高原是黄河及长江流域白龙江上游的重要产流区,分析区域内输出地表径流量演变趋势,为优化水资源可持续开发利用提供依据.[方法]以甘南高原为研究区域,基于玛曲、双城、岷县、舟曲等16个控制水文站66 a长系列实测径流资料,提出采用实测径流评价区域内对外输出地表径流的概念,采用多种趋势突变检验法、ARIMA模型等方法,分析区域内黄河干流、洮河、大夏河、白龙江实测径流量及输出地表径流量的演变趋势.[结果]甘南高原代表站仅玛曲站实测径流呈增加趋势,其余洮河岷县、大夏河双城及白龙江舟曲站均呈减少趋势,各站实测径流突变点均显著;甘南高原对外输出的地表径流量约为80.70亿m3,呈不显著减少趋势,减少率为1.36亿m3/10 a,突变点年份为1989年;黄河流域输出的地表径流量对下游兰州水文站实测径流量的贡献率多年平均为21.1%,呈减少趋势,减少率为0.18亿m3/10 a;长江流域白龙江对下游武都水文站的贡献率多年平均为37.3%,呈增加趋势,增加率为 0.14 亿m3/10 a;预测甘南高原 2023 年、2024 年输出的地表径流量分别为78.79亿m3、77.83亿m3.[结论]受气候变化和人类活动的影响,1990年以来的30多年间甘南高原对外输出的地表径流量呈减少趋势.
Analysis of the trend in surface runoff discharge from the Gannan Plateau
[Objective]The Gannan Plateau is an important runoff production area in the upper reaches of the Bailong River in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins.The development trend of the regional production surface runoff is analyzed to provide a basis for optimizing the sustainable development and use of water resources.[Method]This article takes the Gannan Plateau as the research area and is based on 66 years of measured runoff data from 16 control hydrological stations,including Maqu,Shuangcheng,Minxian and Zhouqu.Propose the concept of using measured runoff to evaluate the external output of surface runoff within an area.The development trend of measured runoff and output surface runoff of the mainstream of the Yellow River,Taohe River,Daxia River and Bailong River in the region is analyzed using multiple trend mutation test methods,ARIMA model and other methods.[Result]The measured runoff at the representa-tive station of Gannan Plateau only at Maqu Station shows an increasing trend,while that at the other sta-tions in Minxian County of Taohe River,Shuangcheng of Daxia River and Zhouqu of Bailong River shows a decreasing trend,and the measured runoff mutation points at each station are significant.The surface runoff output from the Gannan Plateau to the outside world is 8.07 billion m3,showing an insignificant decreasing trend,with a reduction rate of 136 million m3/10 a,and the year of the mutation point is 1989.The contribu-tion rate of surface runoff output from the Yellow River Basin to the measured runoff at the downstream Lanzhou Hydrological Station is 21.1%on average over the years,showing a decreasing trend,with a re-duction rate of 18 million m3/10 a.The annual average contribution rate of the Bailong River in the Yangtze River Basin to the downstream Wudu Hydrological Station is 37.3%,showing an increasing trend,with an increase rate of 14 million m3/10 a.The predicted surface runoff output in 2023 and 2024 is 7.879 billion m3 and 7.783 billion m3,respectively.[Conclusion]Due to the effects of climate change and human activities,surface runoff from the Gannan Plateau has been decreasing for more than 30 years since 1990.This conclu-sion is of great significance for the development and utilization of water resources and economic and social development in the lower reaches of the Gannan Plateau and deserves high attention.

output surface runoffevolution trendforecastthe Gannan Plateau

牛最荣、崔亮、朱咏、王启优、张正正

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甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070

甘肃省水文站,甘肃 兰州 730030

输出地表径流量 演变趋势 预测 甘南高原

2024

甘肃农业大学学报
甘肃农业大学

甘肃农业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.612
ISSN:1003-4315
年,卷(期):2024.59(6)