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基于"四阶段"模型的高速铁路货运需求预测

High-speed Railway Freight Demand Forecasting Based on the"Four-Stage"Model

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为合理预测高速铁路货运需求,科学指导高速铁路货运网络规划布局,构建科学的高速铁路货运需求预测模型势在必行.本文结合高速铁路货运需求特点,从高速铁路货运目标市场出发,针对快递运输需求构建了"四阶段"高速铁路货运需求预测模型理论框架,并对模型参数标定方法进行了全面阐述,最后基于全国高速铁路货运需求预测对构建的预测模型可操作性进行了验证.
To reasonably predict the demand for high-speed rail freight and scientifically guide the planning and layout of high-speed rail freight network,it is imperative to build a scientific forecasting model for high-speed rail freight demand.Based on the characteristics and the target market of high-speed rail freight demand,this paper constructed the theoretical framework of"Four-Stage"high-speed rail freight demand forecasting model for express transportation demand,and comprehensively expounded the parameter calibration method of the model.Finally,the operability of the constructed forecasting model was verified based on the national high-speed rail freight demand forecasting.

"Four-Stage"Methodmodelhigh-speed railway freightexpressdemand forecasting

赵旭

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中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司,北京 100055

"四阶段"法 模型 高速铁路货运 快递 需求预测

2024

高速铁路技术
中国中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司

高速铁路技术

影响因子:0.398
ISSN:1674-8247
年,卷(期):2024.15(6)