Urban Spatial Expansion Prediction Based on CA Model:A Case Study of Jinhu Coastal Area
Jinhu coastal area urban land distribution maps in 1990, 2000 and 2010 were compiled with the help of Erdas and ArcGIS, and they served as the basis for urban spatial expansion simulation. The authors used urban CA model which had time and space dynamic constraints to simulate Jinhu coastal area urban spatial form of 2020. The advanced nature of this model lies in the multi - time interval phase transition rule. It uses transition probability matrix to predict urban land total quantity as constraints of CA model, and utilizes logistic regression to adjust the transition rule of CA model. The authors calculated landscape pattern indexes of various stages and drew the following conclusions; the urban land shape complicated unceasingly, and the degree of fragmentation increased from 1990 to 2010; nevertheless, the urban land shape was becoming regularized and the degree of fragmentation tends to decline from 2010 to 2020. During the period of 1990 -2020, the average patch size is on the rise, the influence of the largest patch is enlarging year by year, and the accumulation of urban land is accelerated. The geographical space of cities in Jinhu coastal area is gradually narrowed and, with the improvement of regional transportation conditions, the spatial integrated development of Jinhu will become an inevitable trend.
urban spatial expansionCA modelLogistic regressiontransition probability matrixJinhu coastal area
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
