面向时间城市规划的行为决策建模及上海陆家嘴地区案例探索
Activity-based Modeling for Temporal City Planning and Case Study of Shanghai Lujiazui
王德 1任熙元 2胡杨1
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院
- 2. 纽约大学坦顿工程学院
- 折叠
摘要
揭示居民时空活动背后的行为决策机制,模拟不同政策情景下个体在城市时空环境中的活动选择,对于实现以人为本的发展目标、落实时间城市的规划政策、推动数字化时代的智慧城市建设具有关键作用.在时间城市规划的语境下,本文明确了行为决策建模对于时空间行为研究的意义,提出"时间—空间—决策—活动"四位一体的理论框架,并梳理了时空间行为决策建模的基本要素、效用假设和拟合算法.本文以上海陆家嘴为研究案例,探索出一条"数据采集、模型构建、偏好分析、政策制定、效果预测"的实践路径,并进一步认为时间城市规划应充分了解居民的行为决策机制,协调好个体时间与城市时间的关系、时间规划与空间规划的关系、适应性规划与引导性规划的关系.
Abstract
Revealing the decision-making mechanism behind residents'spatiotemporal activities,as well as predicting their choices within urban environments under various policy scenarios,play a crucial role in achieving the goal of people-oriented development,implementing time-based planning policies,and accelerating the development of smart cities in the digital age.In the context of temporal city planning,this paper clarifies the significance of choice modeling in spatio-temporal behavior research,proposes a theoretical framework of'Time-Space-Decision-Activity',and summarizes the methodology of spatiotemporal activity-based choice modeling in terms of basic elements,conditional assumptions,and estimation algorithms.Taking Shanghai Lujiazui as a study case,we explore a practical path encompassing'data collection,model formulation,preference analysis,policy making,and behavior simulation'.Moreover,this paper concludes that temporal city planning should get a deeper understanding of the decision-making mechanism to coordinate the relationship between individual time and urban time,between spatial planning and temporal planning,and between adaptive planning and directive planning.
关键词
时间城市规划/行为决策模型/时空间行为/通勤时间规划/上海陆家嘴Key words
Temporal City Planning/Activity-based Modeling/Spatio-Temporal Behavior/Planning on Commuting Timing/Shanghai Lujiazui引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52378069)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据