Assessment based on DLNM model on the impact of atmospheric pollutants on incidence of influenza-like illness in Jinan city from 2015-2019
Objective To investigate the relationship between atmospheric pollutants and the incidence of influenza-like illness(ILI)in Jinan from 2015 to 2019,so as to provide a scientific basis for early warning of influenza.Methods Data on ILI,meteorology and atmospheric pollutants in Jinan from 2015 to 2019 were collected.The epidemiological profile of ILI was described.R 4.2.2 software was used for spearman correlation analysis,and a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was constructed to explore the association between atmospheric pollutants and the incidence of ILI.Results A total of 156 699 ILI cases were reported from five sentinel hospitals in Jinan.There was a significant correlation between atmospheric pollutants and the incidence of ILI,with a lag effect.At specific concentrations,the maximum values of statistically significant cumulative effects of PM2 5,SO2,NO2,and O3 were 1.134(95％CI:1.018-1.263),1.291(95％CI:1.055-1.580),1.341(95％CI:1.229-1.462)and 1.267(95％CI:1.085-1.481),respectively.The cumulative lag effect of pollutants was greater than the single lag effect.Conclusions The pollutants would increase the risk of ILI in Jinan city.Enhanced forecasting of pollution by relevant agencies are recommended to provide suggestions of rational protection for the public during air pollutions.
Influenza-like illnessDistributed lag non-linear modelAtmospheric pollutantsEnvironmental factors
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
