Development and validation of postoperative survival prediction model for patients with renal papillary cell carcinoma based on SEER database
Objective To construct and validate a Nomogram that can effectively predict post-operative overall survival(OS)in patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma(pRCC).Methods The clinical data of 1 075 patients with pRCC from 2004 to 2015 in SEER database were retrospectively analyzed.These patients were first randomly assigned to the training cohort(753 cases)or the valida-tion cohort(322 cases)in a ratio of 7∶3.Cox regression analysis and LASSO analysis were used to determine the prognostic factors of OS,and the nomogram was established.The performance of nomo-gram was evaluated by C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve.Results There were more patients with N stage tumor in the training cohort than in the verification co-hort,and the difference was statistically significant(P=0.024).Cox regression analysis and LASSO analysis showed that the independent risk factors for OS in pRCC patients included age at first diagno-sis,pathological grade of tumor,TNM stage,preoperative and/or postoperative radiotherapy,and tumor size(all P＜0.05).The C-index and the area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram showed that it had good predictive ability.The calibration curves of 1-year,3-year,and 5-year OS were also in good agreement with the actual survival results in both the modeling and validation cohorts.Conclu-sions This study developed a nomogram for predicting long-term survival after pRCC.After verifica-tion,it has been confirmed that it has an effective predictive ability for OS,which will help to evaluate the prognosis and long-term survival of patients with pRCC.
Kidney NeoplasmsSEER DatabasePrognostic Prediction Model
万方数据
维普
