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广西境内西江流域洪水特性分析

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为减少西江流域灾害性洪水给广西工农业生产及人民生命财产带来的损失,针对多年实测洪水资料,从洪水年内分布特性、洪水组成、干支流洪水遭遇等方面对广西境内西江流域洪水特性进行全面分析。分析成果表明,柳江洪水发生时间与干流基本相应,桂江洪水发生时间较早,郁江洪水发生时间晚于干流;柳江对形成干流洪水的贡献很大,郁江和桂江对干流大洪水的形成作用有限;柳江与红水河洪水遭遇可能性很大,年最大洪峰流量、7 d洪量、15 d洪量遭遇的概率分别为34.1%、47.7%和52.3%,且遭遇洪水的量级也较大,3 d洪量为50~100亿m3,7 d洪量为100~200亿m3。郁江与干流洪水遭遇概率较低,桂江洪水基本不与干流遭遇且遭遇洪水的量级很小,年最大洪峰流量、7 d洪量、15 d洪量遭遇的概率仅为4.5%、9.1%和15.9%。
Analysis on flood characteristics of the Xi Jiang River in Guangxi
In order to reduce the loss of Guangxi’s industry, agriculture and property caused by flood of the Xi Jiang River, the flood characteristics of the Xi Jiang River in Guangxi including annual dis-tribution characteristics, flood composition and branch/main stream floods encounter are fully ana-lyzed, based on the measured flood data spreading over several decades. The results show that the Liu Jiang River flood synchronizes with the mainstream flood in general, while the Gui Jiang River flood happens earlier and the Yu Jiang River flood happens later than the mainstream; that the Liu Jiang River contributes more to the forming of mainstream flood, while the Yu Jiang River and the Gui Jiang River have limited effect;that flood from the Liu Jiang River and the Hong He River have high probability to encounter, the actual encounter probabilities of the maximum, 7 d and 15 d flood volume, are 34. 1%,47. 7% and 53. 2%,respectively,and the magnitude of the encountered floods is large, 7 d flood volume is five to ten billion cubic meters, and 15 d flood volume is ten to twenty billion cubic meters;that the Yu Jiang River flood and its mainstream flood have low probability to <br> meet, and the Gui Jiang River flood almost dose not encounter with the mainstream flood, the en-counter probabilities of the annual maximum flood, maximum 7 d and 15 d flood volume are only 4. 5%,9. 1% and 15. 9%, respectively.

the Xi Jiang Riverflood characteristicsflood compositionfloods encounter

甘富万、胡秀英、刘欣、黄永俊

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广西大学 土木建筑工程学院,广西 南宁 530004

广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西 南宁 530004

西江 洪水特性 洪水组成 洪水遭遇

国家自然科学基金资助项目广西重点实验室系统性研究资助项目广西大学科研基金资助项目

511781242014ZDX011土科基-2012-02

2015

广西大学学报(自然科学版)
广西大学

广西大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.767
ISSN:1001-7445
年,卷(期):2015.(1)
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