Study on the Potential Suitable Area of Ormosia in Guangdong Province Based on the MaxEnt Model
In order to understand the changes in the potential suitable areas of Ormosia in Guangdong Province under climate change scenarios and explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential suit-able areas of Ormosia,based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.8 software,this study used the distribu-tion data of 17 species of Ormosia plants and the data of 22 environmental variables,combined with the cli-mate scenarios of social and economic paths(SSP126,SSP585)to predict the distribution of potential suitable areas of Ormosia plants in the current and future climate scenarios.The results showed that:(1)The evalua-tion effect of the prediction model of the suitable area was good,and the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve(ROC curve)(average AUC values)were all in the range of 0.8-1.0.(2)Under the current climate scenario,Ormosia pachycarpa and other 3 species were suitable for growing in large area(ac-counting for 40％-100％of the area of Guangdong Province).6 species,including O.pachycarpa var.tenu-is,were suitable for medium area(20％-40％).4 species,including O.indurata,were suitable for small area(5％-20％).4 species,such as O.emarginata,were suitable for very small area(0％-5％).Among them,the highest percentage of suitable area is O.pachycarpa,with a total area of 1 522 288 km2,accounting for 84.75％;the smallest suitable area is O.boluoensis,with a total area of 337 km2,accounting for 0.19％.(3)Rainfall and altitude play a leading role in the distribution of Ormosia plants.The dominant factors of the suitable area of 12 species of Ormosia plants were climatic factors(9 rainfall factors,3 temperature factors),and the dominant factors of the remaining 5 species were altitude factors(5 altitude factors).(4)Under the future climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP585),the potential suitable area of 4 Ormosia species would increase,including O.emarginata etc.,with an increase of 0.79％-42.43％.The potential suitable area of 13 Ormosia species would decrease,including O.boluoensis etc.,with a decrease of 1.30％-78.56％.Climate warming has a certain negative impact on the potential distribution area of Ormosia species.Among the 17 species of Ormosia,the suitable area of 13 species will be reduced,especially for several narrowly distributed species(O.boluoensis,O.ferruginea,O.microphylla,O.purpureiflora,and O.sericeolucida).They should be the priority groups of in-situ conservation and ex-situ conservation of Ormosia species.
Ormosiaclimate changeMaxEnt modelpotential suitable areasdominant factorGuangdong Province
万方数据
维普
