Dynamic Evaluation of Mangrove Ecotourism Safety in Guangxi-A Case Study of the Golden Bay Scenic Area
Mangrove ecotourism is an important industry to promote the protection and utilization of mangrove forests.At present,the safety evaluation of mangrove ecotourism is mainly based on qualitative research and lacks quantitative research.This study took the Golden Bay Scenic Area as an example to carry out quantita-tive research on the dynamic evaluation of mangrove ecotourism safety in Guangxi.The Tourism Ecological Footprint(TEF)model was used to estimate and calculate the tourism ecological footprint and tourism eco-logical carrying capacity of the Golden Bay Scenic Area from 2016 to 2023,and the security status of man-grove ecotourism in the scenic areas was dynamically evaluated through the tourism ecological profit/loss,tourism ecological sustainability index and tourism ecological pressure index.At the same time,the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the per capita tourism ecological footprint of scenic areas from 2024 to 2028,and the regression function was used to calculate the critical value of tourist reception in scenic areas.The results showed that the tourism ecological footprint of the scenic areas increased rapidly by 58.71％from 2016 to 2023,and the tourism ecological carrying capacity was relatively stable,which could meet the needs of tour-ists'tourism activities.However,if the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic was excluded,the development of mangrove ecotourism in the scenic areas was close to the critical value of a safer state.In 2028,the per capita tourism ecological footprint of the scenic areas would reach 4.86 m2/person.The critical value of annual tour-ist reception of the scenic areas was 739 500,but according to the current development trend,the number of tourist reception in 2026 would reach 797 700.Therefore,it is necessary to control the per capita tourism eco-logical footprint and the tourist reception,so as to ensure the safety of mangrove ecotourism.
万方数据
维普
